Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f1…19a0 sports 778 markets active 24h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,553 (-10%) realized −$2,553 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%376W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Fees−$647est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$251
14 days−$193
30 days−$1,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,914
crypto 10% −$306
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -21.8% -29.3% 44% 37% -22.9%
≤30d 409 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 35% -17.1%
≤90d 778 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 37% -17.0%
all 778 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 37% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 27% -24.9%
15% -35.8% 20% -32.2%
20% -42.1% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,553
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses376 / 402
Est. fees paid−$647
Open positions0
Markets (closed)778 / 778
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 778 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $15 +$7 +43%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $17 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +85%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +98%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $34 −$15 -45%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $73 +$14 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +45%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $71 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$7 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$10 +31%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 −$3 -10%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $68 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 65¢ $22 23h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 76¢ $22 23h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 52¢ $15 24h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 25¢ $15 24h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 30¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 35¢ $13 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 41¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 26¢ $5 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 43¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 46¢ $12 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $11 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 35¢ $11 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records