Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f0…04f3 other 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-15%) realized −$59 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$132
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$25 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions43
Markets (closed)2 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+125%)
Will Álvaro Morata win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+718%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 6d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 6d
Will Álvaro Morata win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $873.66 · official $876.38 (match) · 51 history records