Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37ef…a37a politics 74 markets active 62d ago coverage 161d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,900 (+3%) realized +$1,893 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 43L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$135
economics 31% +$7,241
politics 15% +$890
other 8% +$2,226
culture 7% −$124
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +335.8% +294.3% 67% 33% +90.6%
≤90d 40 -31.5% -38.0% 18% 8% -31.0%
all 73 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 18% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 18% +7.6%
10% -19.3% 14% -2.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 10% -12.1%
20% -34.3% 10% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$877) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
28.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$423 vs −$56 · ×7.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.41 per $1 lost it wins $5.41
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$1,893
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$905
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 59¢ 86¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Jun 16 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Jun 16 $63 +$632 +1008%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $7,051 +$19 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026? Apr 27 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $622 −$597 -96%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeff Clark as the next United States Attorn Apr 06 $19 −$13 -70%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 05 $307 +$103 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Apr 05 $237 −$37 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Apr 05 $65 −$14 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Apr 05 $62 −$4 -7%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Apr 05 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor Apr 05 $27 −$12 -45%
Will Donald Trump announce Mike Lee as the next United States Attorney Apr 05 $26 −$13 -49%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 05 $818 −$660 -81%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Apr 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 05 $765 −$111 -14%
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 05 $247 −$67 -27%
Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Apr 05 $196 −$7 -3%
Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Apr 05 $194 −$5 -2%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $446 +$1 +0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $452 −$2 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Apr 05 $444 −$21 -5%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $454 −$3 -1%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $518 −$4 -1%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 05 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $5 −$1 -18%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 05 $901 +$45 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 05 $50 −$35 -69%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 17 $196 +$13 +6%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $6,086 +$31 +0%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in another country? Feb 07 $2,748 +$41 +2%
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026? Feb 07 $2,046 +$644 +32%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Feb 07 $2,804 +$12 +0%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Feb 07 $2,801 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $6 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $15 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $15 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $0 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $32 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $10 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $3 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $10 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $10 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $10 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $5 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $2 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $3 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $70 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $3 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $5 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $21.62 (match) · 3500 history records