Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37e9…e2c2 weather 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-29%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$9
other 22% −$1
sports 7% +$1
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 28% -39.8%
≤30d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 28% -39.8%
≤90d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 28% -39.8%
all 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 28% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.8% 28% -39.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.1% 22% -45.6%
15% -54.9% 22% -50.8%
20% -59.3% 11% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +111%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 47m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 50m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 15¢ $1 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 13¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 97¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 38 history records