Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37e9…eede sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,328 (-8%) realized −$2,502 · open +$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day78.1pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$671
other 7% −$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 48% -13.5%
≤30d 48 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 48% -13.5%
≤90d 48 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 48% -13.5%
all 48 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 48% -13.5%
10% -15.8% 48% -21.8%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 48% -29.3%
20% -31.4% 40% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$937) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$502 vs −$550 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,877
Realized−$2,502
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage3d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day78.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 68¢ $975 $1,392 +$416 (+43%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 24¢ $337 $165 −$172 (-51%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 32¢ $178 $163 −$15 (-8%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 74¢ $64 $106 +$42 (+66%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 12¢ $150 $52 −$97 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $112 +$88 +79%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $145 +$71 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $59 +$100 +170%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $59 +$69 +116%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $190 +$100 +52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $958 +$1,100 +115%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 +$5 +85%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $487 +$209 +43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,048 +$1,389 +133%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $39 +$46 +117%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $260 +$311 +120%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $683 −$683 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $48 −$1 -1%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,568 −$727 -46%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,957 −$1,934 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $650 +$312 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $218 +$230 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,766 −$1,766 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $199 +$84 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 −$256 -51%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,649 +$1,903 +115%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 +$8 +117%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$20 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $106 +$94 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $167 +$7 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,337 +$1,508 +113%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $418 +$249 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $350 −$350 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $545 −$545 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $341 −$341 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $340 −$338 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,984 +$1,980 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $728 +$965 +133%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $937 +$1,208 +129%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,036 −$474 -46%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $952 −$952 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $345 −$345 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $38 45m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $8 46m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $50 47m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $13 47m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $23 47m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $17 48m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $12 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $48 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $59 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 48¢ $86 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $97 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $36 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $46 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $204 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $40 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $3 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $112 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 2h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,877.45 · official $1,877.45 (match) · 278 history records