Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x37e1…0d42 politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$660per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$13
other 17% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage117d
Avg bet$660
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $200 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,796 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,853 −$5 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,701 −$1 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $23 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $1,443 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 10h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 10h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 11h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 14h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 35h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 2d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 73d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 96d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,748 103d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,701 108d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 108d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 108d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 108d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 111d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,407 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.47 · official $178.47 (match) · 158 history records