Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37de…f512
sports · 445 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,489 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,240 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$226
Realized−$1,240
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses355 / 485
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$869
Open positions12
Markets (closed)840 / 445
History coverage26d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day127.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 12 History 840 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,603
7 days−$2,196
14 days−$1,993
30 days−$1,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 51¢ 52¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+69%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? No 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5 Over 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 Under 17¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $8 −$43 -506%
Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5 Jun 14 $21 +$66 +308%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $25 +$35 +144%
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers Jun 14 $0 +$231 +183085%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down on December 13? Jun 14 $9 −$12 -133%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5 Jun 14 $18 −$9 -48%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Jun 14 $1 −$4 -881%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $215 −$210 -98%
Spread: Team World (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5 Jun 14 $0 −$9 -5290%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5 Jun 14 $3 −$4 -111%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-11.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Jun 14 $6 −$8 -135%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5 Jun 14 $0 +$22 +7234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% +$758
sports 47% +$722
other 3% −$51
crypto 0% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $22 55m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $100 55m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $151 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $956 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $18 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 91¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +95.2% +76.6% 26% 21% -18.4%
≤30d 840 +61.3% +45.9% 42% 21% -10.7%
≤90d 840 +61.3% +45.9% 42% 21% -10.7%
all 840 +61.3% +45.9% 42% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.9% 21% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here +31.9% 17% -19.2%
15% +19.2% 14% -27.0%
20% +7.5% 13% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.83 · official $225.68 (match) · 3500 history records