Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d9…5442 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,400 (-14%) realized +$511 · open −$1,911
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,661per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,913
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +102.2% +82.9% 100% 100% +82.9%
≤30d 3 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 33% -9.6%
all 3 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 33% -9.6%
10% -44.9% 33% -18.3%
15% -50.2% 33% -26.2%
20% -55.1% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,398 vs −$700 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5,168
Realized+$511
Unrealized−$1,911
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,661
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 38¢ $5,213 $3,695 −$1,519 (-29%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 38¢ $1,199 $1,002 −$197 (-16%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 29¢ $666 $471 −$195 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,368 +$1,398 +102%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,014 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,014 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $339 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $339 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2,765 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,006 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,126 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $563 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $563 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $338 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $338 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $338 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $607 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $507 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $95 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $158 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $203 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $506 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $203 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $506 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,167.58 · official $5,167.58 (match) · 21 history records