Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d9…9b1e sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,975 (-11%) realized +$7,522 · open −$14,497
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,005per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$773est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$23,648
other 7% +$1,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 44% -24.3%
≤30d 9 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 44% -24.3%
≤90d 9 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 44% -24.3%
all 9 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 44% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 44% -24.3%
10% -22.9% 44% -31.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 33% -38.2%
20% -37.2% 22% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,744 vs −$5,308 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,312
Realized+$7,522
Unrealized−$14,497
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$773
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6,005
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) Ursa 95¢ 50¢ $9,946 $5,304 −$4,642 (-47%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 62¢ 0¢ $9,863 $8 −$9,855 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4,464 −$4,387 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $14,954 −$10,476 -70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6,613 +$8,324 +126%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4,780 +$1,639 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5,445 −$5,393 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $3,707 +$1,747 +47%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $3,433 +$196 +6%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1,732 +$1,816 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $993 −$976 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 53¢ $46 49m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 95¢ $901 54m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 95¢ $3,004 55m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 95¢ $3,004 55m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 95¢ $3,004 55m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $9,920 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4,464 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 17¢ $4,478 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $14 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 53¢ $5,592 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 54¢ $9,348 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $6,613 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $6,419 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $750 15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $2,011 15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $2,019 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5,445 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $5,454 19h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $149 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $1,535 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 61¢ $2,023 21h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 100¢ $3,629 21h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 99¢ $227 22h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 99¢ $200 22h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 98¢ $500 22h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 96¢ $501 22h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 92¢ $2,005 22h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $3,511 22h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 65¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,312.05 · official $5,312.05 (match) · 36 history records