Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37d7…a271
crypto · 23 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$2 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 6 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland to win the second half? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% $0
crypto 46% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 47% -5.8%
≤30d 17 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 47% -5.8%
≤90d 17 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 47% -5.8%
all 17 +7.0% -3.2% 47% 47% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 47% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -14.8%
15% -20.9% 41% -23.0%
20% -28.6% 41% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.89 · official $27.89 (match) · 44 history records