Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x37d6…fd31 other 85 markets active 1d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%42W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$16
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$42
other 33% −$15
crypto 13% −$26
sports 7% $0
politics 4% +$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% +$5
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.6% +12.7% 60% 60% +21.5%
≤30d 33 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 45% -7.2%
≤90d 43 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 49% -4.4%
all 74 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 46% -6.3%
10% -19.1% 35% -15.2%
15% -26.9% 27% -23.4%
20% -34.1% 20% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses42 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)74 / 85
History coverage221d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 24¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$9 +58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $15 +$11 +73%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $5 $0 -3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? Jun 03 $20 −$2 -10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$3 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$4 +42%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 02 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 01 $15 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 31 $21 −$10 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $15 +$3 +18%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 30 $10 +$5 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $15 +$2 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? May 28 $5 +$4 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 +$3 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -88%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $5 +$8 +156%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $28 +$13 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +64%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 31 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Sta Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League S Mar 09 $1 +$1 +89%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $0 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $1 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $6 9d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 85¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $1 11d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $12 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $2 12d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $10 12d
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? SELL Up 85¢ $18 13d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 14d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.78 · official $89.78 (match) · 203 history records