Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x37d5…728f other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$660 (+4%) realized +$670 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 37L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$118
14 days+$190
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$346
sports 37% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +27.1% +15.0% 62% 54% -6.3%
≤30d 35 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 49% -6.6%
≤90d 75 +12.8% +2.1% 51% 47% -4.6%
all 75 +12.8% +2.1% 51% 47% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 47% -4.6%
10% -7.7% 44% -13.7%
15% -16.6% 40% -22.0%
20% -24.8% 35% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$101 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$1,399
Realized+$670
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions33
Markets (closed)75 / 108
History coverage267d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $154 $149 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $81 $91 +$10 (+12%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 62¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $35 −$9 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+20%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $30 $33 +$4 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $284 +$38 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$68 +181%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$62 -41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $137 +$59 +43%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$48 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$113 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $147 −$144 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $328 −$324 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $217 −$213 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $283 +$110 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 +$73 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $390 +$57 +14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $126 −$11 -8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $40 −$28 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $153 +$81 +53%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $152 +$103 +67%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $162 −$9 -6%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $191 +$123 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $129 +$37 +29%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 02 $47 −$2 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 01 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 30 $40 −$40 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,631 +$494 +30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $581 −$414 -71%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $307 +$349 +114%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $89 −$87 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $360 −$272 -76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $187 −$182 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $717 −$350 -49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $73 −$54 -74%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $100 −$7 -7%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $375 +$564 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $587 +$471 +80%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $101 +$74 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $38 5m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 7m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 9m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 10m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 10m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $127 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $55 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $38 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $42 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $42 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $38 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $47 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $47 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $53 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $52 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $142 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $142 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,399.45 · official $1,395.80 (match) · 280 history records