Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d5…d528 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,468 (-1%) realized −$2,475 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,543per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$25
14 days−$46
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$109
politics 39% −$105
sports 7% −$2,284
economics 3% −$8
world 1% +$4
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +0.4% -9.1% 8% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 2% -9.6%
all 150 -5.1% -14.1% 15% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 9% -10.5%
10% -22.3% 9% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 8% -26.9%
20% -36.7% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,160) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$28 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$2,475
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,543
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $414 $421 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $4,380 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $5,493 −$6 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $359 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,236 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,588 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,761 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $9,034 −$9 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,082 −$6 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,936 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,295 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $942 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $45 +$53 +119%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $305 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $634 +$4 +1%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,037 −$6 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,825 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $322 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,234 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,947 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,919 −$5 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,358 −$4 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,887 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,275 −$4 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $9,550 −$11 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $6,268 −$8 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $340 4h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $374 4h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $374 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $359 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $359 26h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $474 28h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $474 30h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $299 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $571 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $572 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $672 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $673 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $309 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $858 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $859 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $766 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $767 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $414 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,249 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,272 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.59 · official $420.59 (match) · 549 history records