Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x37d4…5753 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$343 (+129%) realized +$343 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$421
sports 27% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 33% +123.8%
≤30d 18 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 33% +123.8%
≤90d 18 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 33% +123.8%
all 18 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 33% +123.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 33% +123.8%
10% -23.8% 33% +102.4%
15% -31.2% 28% +82.8%
20% -37.9% 28% +64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +147% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +147% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$6 · ×12.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.37 per $1 lost it wins $6.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $53 +$63 +120%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$19 +71%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +31%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$14 +262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $92 +$361 +394%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $53 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 41h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $92 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records