Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d3…e3e2 politics 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%74W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$23
14 days−$24
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$6
sports 27% −$22
other 24% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 80 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 160 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 257 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses74 / 183
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $31 $0 -2%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $431 −$6 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $424 −$15 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $26 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $13 $0 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $66 $0 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $10 2m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 21m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 34m
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $8 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 12h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 14h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 16h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $5 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $5 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $25 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $400 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $407 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 73¢ $409 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 1292 history records