Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
37 0x37d3…f543 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$478 (-12%) realized −$478 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 36% −$492
politics 12% −$2
sports 12% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -10.8% -19.3% 30% 0% -20.4%
≤90d 10 -10.8% -19.3% 30% 0% -20.4%
all 10 -10.8% -19.3% 30% 0% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -20.4%
10% -27.0% 0% -28.0%
15% -34.1% 0% -35.0%
20% -40.5% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$102 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$478
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 27 $475 +$9 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $467 −$3 -0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $459 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 21 $468 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $144 −$12 -8%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $493 −$492 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $495 −$2 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 09 $470 +$24 +5%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $468 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records