Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37d3…709a
sports · 79 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$164,229 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32,268 · open −$135,005
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,732
Realized−$32,268
Unrealized−$135,005
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$8,586
Open positions8
Markets (closed)71 / 79
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8,266
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,170
7 days−$30,085
14 days−$154,875
30 days−$136,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 17¢ 20¢ $8,414 $10,035 +$1,621 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $112,177 $5,007 −$107,170 (-96%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 32¢ 19¢ $5,086 $3,112 −$1,974 (-39%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 21¢ 2¢ $25,164 $2,106 −$23,058 (-92%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 1¢ 0¢ $1,102 $387 −$715 (-65%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2,871 $42 −$2,829 (-99%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $654 $34 −$620 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $269 $9 −$260 (-96%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ 0¢ $604 $0 −$604 (-100%)
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 4¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 11¢ 0¢ $6,713 $0 −$6,713 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 6¢ 0¢ $794 $0 −$794 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 7¢ 0¢ $1,540 $0 −$1,540 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ 0¢ $2,732 $0 −$2,732 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 1¢ 0¢ $1,276 $0 −$1,276 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2,800 −$2,732 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,582 −$1,540 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $817 −$794 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $620 −$604 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $288 −$280 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,306 −$1,276 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6,892 −$6,713 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $215 +$785 +365%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $483 −$483 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5,923 −$5,923 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $3,847 −$3,847 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2,405 −$2,405 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1,873 −$1,873 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $337 −$337 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $48,809 −$48,809 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $9,009 +$45,406 +504%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $33,145 −$33,145 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $8,770 −$8,700 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $16,166 +$29,847 +185%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,637 +$2,363 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $35,119 +$18,201 +52%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,255 +$44 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 03 $204 −$204 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $165 −$165 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 03 $3,274 −$3,274 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $3,341 −$3,341 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 03 $6,590 −$6,590 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 03 $5,398 −$5,398 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5,165 −$5,165 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 03 $5,115 −$5,115 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 03 $20,522 −$20,522 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $37,207 −$37,207 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 03 $35,912 −$35,912 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $705 +$9,695 +1376%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $12,386 +$8,809 +71%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $16,106 +$9,313 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$36,166
politics 29% −$130,488
other 0% −$620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 10¢ $77 5m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 10¢ $1,027 5m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 1¢ $103 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 12¢ $1,232 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 1¢ $2 11m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 0¢ $0 12m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 1¢ $1,030 12m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $860 14m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 8¢ $84 37m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $510 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $462 43m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $800 49m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 19¢ $3,892 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 5¢ $103 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $163 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 5¢ $103 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 22¢ $1,351 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $1,019 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 18¢ $102 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $400 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $103 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $874 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 7¢ $144 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 5¢ $560 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $119 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -41.9% -47.5% 19% 16% -23.8%
≤30d 49 -29.7% -36.4% 16% 14% -47.0%
≤90d 71 +17.2% +6.0% 31% 30% -16.1%
all 71 +17.2% +6.0% 31% 30% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 30% -16.1%
10% -4.1% 30% -24.1%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 30% -31.5%
20% -21.9% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,732.29 · official $20,732.29 (match) · 1546 history records