Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d1…c7fb crypto 634 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%315W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.0% +4.0% 72% 56% +3.5%
≤30d 172 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 42% -11.3%
≤90d 634 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 43% -13.3%
all 634 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 43% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 43% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 38% -21.6%
15% -30.3% 30% -29.2%
20% -37.1% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses315 / 319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)634 / 634
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 634 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 28 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $7 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 27 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 27 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 26 $3 +$4 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 26 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 26 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 25 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $4 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $3 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $3 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records