Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37d1…4e28
world · 37 markets active 96d ago
0.0score
+$841,144 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$841,144 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$841,144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage264d
Avg bet$51,306
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5,755 $0 −$5,755 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8,399 $0 −$8,399 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $37,925 $0 −$37,925 (-100%)
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4,221 $0 −$4,221 (-100%)
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30? No 28¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? No 69¢ 0¢ $10,350 $0 −$10,350 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $185 $0 −$185 (-100%)
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Real Madrid 40¢ 0¢ $4,043 $0 −$4,043 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $647 $0 −$647 (-100%)
Israel strike on Iran on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $29,994 +$1,949 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $78,751 +$12,091 +15%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 08 $3,685 +$75,806 +2057%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 08 $162,298 +$187,423 +116%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $1,606 −$1,548 -96%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $844 +$4,942 +586%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $24,672 +$18,785 +76%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $60,849 +$41,170 +68%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $59,345 +$301,111 +507%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $237 −$229 -97%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $37,930 −$37,925 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Feb 27 $28,671 +$508 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $7,043 −$6,163 -88%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 09 $8,400 −$8,399 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 04 $185 −$185 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $648 −$647 -100%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Sep 04 $135 +$110 +82%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 14 $2,480 +$7,520 +303%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 14 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 12 $16,600 +$3,400 +20%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 09 $4,043 −$4,043 -100%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jul 09 $243 +$1,035 +426%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 09 $32,798 +$10,933 +33%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jul 05 $570 −$570 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) Jul 05 $27,348 −$18,199 -66%
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 05 $20,462 +$9,629 +47%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jul 03 $467,489 +$4,650 +1%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jul 02 $10,350 −$10,350 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jul 02 $137,655 +$6,094 +4%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 29 $49,095 −$12,016 -24%
Israel strike on Iran on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 23 $5,125 −$4,802 -94%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $13,509 +$514 +4%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $597,660 +$256,137 +43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1,190 −$1,190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 92% +$836,195
sports 5% −$1,216
other 2% +$4,215
finance 2% +$1,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $29,994 96d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,510 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $5,134 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $155 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $994 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $67 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $9,352 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $5,594 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,452 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,418 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,210 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $121 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 61¢ $5,991 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $242 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,347 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $117 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +6.5% -3.6% 100% 0% -3.6%
all 37 +77.9% +61.0% 54% 41% +30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.0% 41% +30.6%
10% ← realistic here +45.6% 35% +18.1%
15% +31.5% 32% +6.7%
20% +18.6% 27% -3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1738 history records