Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cf…7e41 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate78%29W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$15
other 1% +$1
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +6.5% -3.6% 78% 54% -9.9%
≤30d 37 +6.5% -3.6% 78% 54% -9.9%
≤90d 37 +6.5% -3.6% 78% 54% -9.9%
all 37 +6.5% -3.6% 78% 54% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 54% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 32% -18.5%
15% -21.3% 16% -26.4%
20% -29.0% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$59 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses29 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 53¢ 32¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $210 −$86 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $246 −$240 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $238 +$75 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $209 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $306 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $310 −$105 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $317 +$76 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $106 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $145 +$96 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$35 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -85%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $22 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.26 · official $22.08 · 116 history records