Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x37ce…5eec world 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$9
other 31% −$9
culture 2% +$1
politics 1% +$3
sports 1% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 22 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 28 +69.5% +53.4% 46% 4% -9.8%
all 69 +32.3% +19.7% 49% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 7% -9.6%
10% +8.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -2.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -11.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage487d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $146 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $96 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $166 −$6 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $150 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $77 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $167 −$4 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $354 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $220 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $163 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $113 −$7 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $174 −$4 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $476 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $153 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $168 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $131 +$4 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $2,073 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $86 −$11 -13%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $2,092 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $850 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $2 +$5 +275%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $105 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 22m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $145 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $146 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $96 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $96 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $50 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $110 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $166 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $69 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $69 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $151 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $150 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $42 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $11 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $77 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $95 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $93 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $141 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $141 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.18 · official $28.18 (match) · 241 history records