Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37cd…7b7e crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,820 (-48%) realized −$2,764 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$524
7 days−$435
14 days−$465
30 days−$1,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$2,160
sports 14% −$301
other 13% −$211
politics 7% −$176
economics 6% −$260
world 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.3% -26.1% 21% 21% -54.0%
≤30d 28 -26.5% -33.5% 18% 18% -71.2%
≤90d 49 -41.4% -47.0% 14% 12% -64.8%
all 77 -42.5% -47.9% 12% 9% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 9% -58.4%
10% -52.9% 9% -62.4%
15% -57.5% 8% -66.0%
20% -61.6% 5% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$47 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,764
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 68
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage417d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $51 $1 −$51 (-99%)
Raphinha: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $122 +$47 +39%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$4 -71%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 20 $82 −$52 -63%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $44 −$39 -89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 19 $14 −$11 -77%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 19 $43 −$36 -84%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 19 $160 −$132 -83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $83 −$82 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 +$17 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$90 +874%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $421 −$25 -6%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 27 $1,122 −$1,113 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 23 $276 −$269 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $118 −$92 -79%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 20 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 20 $38 −$35 -92%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 20 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 14 $16 −$9 -57%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 29? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 11 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $45 −$9 -20%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $378 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 28? Mar 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $124 −$28 -23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 24 $277 −$234 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 11m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $27 11m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 23m
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 32¢ $10 33m
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $1 33m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $138 39m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 54m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 16¢ $5 54m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 58m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 3¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 5¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 5¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $136 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $132 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2h
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $22 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 3¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $31 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.53 (match) · 234 history records