Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37cc…4ab4 other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%85W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$8
crypto 18% +$1
weather 9% $0
politics 7% +$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 85 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses85 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 10? May 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 06 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 28 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Feb 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5? Feb 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 31 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 20 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 10? Dec 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 10? Dec 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Dec 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 28? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 28? Dec 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on Nov Nov 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on Nov Nov 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 November 10-16? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 13? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 32d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $4 38d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 38d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 48d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 51d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 61d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 67d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 72d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 80d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 80d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 89d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 89d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 89d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 94d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 105d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $27 121d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $25 132d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $5 132d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 132d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 137d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 147d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $31 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.09 · official $34.09 (match) · 173 history records