Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37ca…55f3 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$63 (-2%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 47% −$45
other 44% +$8
sports 9% −$27
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 86% 14% -19.2%
≤90d 7 -8.6% -17.3% 86% 14% -19.2%
all 18 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 17% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 17% -10.9%
10% -26.3% 11% -19.5%
15% -33.5% 6% -27.2%
20% -40.0% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage149d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +5%
Spread: Molde FK (-2.5) Jun 04 $19 +$1 +7%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-04-19? May 18 $15 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 18 $17 −$17 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 21 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $190 +$103 +54%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $1,484 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 19 $88 +$6 +7%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,519 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Feb 19 $315 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 94¢ $19 12d
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 95¢ $12 15d
Spread: Molde FK (-2.5) BUY Sarpsborg 08 FF 93¢ $19 22d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $9 29d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 93¢ $17 35d
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 90¢ $15 58d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20? BUY Down 31¢ $45 115d
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 48¢ $33 115d
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 48¢ $34 115d
Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 48¢ $48 115d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 65¢ $16 116d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 65¢ $88 116d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 65¢ $87 116d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 96¢ $1,484 116d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $724 116d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $760 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 116d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 116d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 116d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $72 116d
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $89 116d
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 3¢ $94 116d
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 3¢ $45 116d
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 3¢ $44 116d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.29 · official $10.29 (match) · 52 history records