Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37c2…198c other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,708 (-18%) realized −$3,521 · open −$11,187
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,531per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$64,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days−$4,817
30 days−$4,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$16,021
sports 1% +$29
crypto 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 29% 29% -91.1%
≤90d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 29% 29% -91.1%
all 7 -26.2% -33.2% 29% 29% -91.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 29% -91.1%
10% -39.6% 29% -92.0%
15% ← realistic here -45.4% 29% -92.8%
20% -50.8% 29% -93.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$1,033 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$64,029
Realized−$3,521
Unrealized−$11,187
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions45
Markets (closed)7 / 54
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,531
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,799 $6,840 +$1,041 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,921 $5,896 +$975 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5,050 $5,759 +$709 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,814 $4,805 −$2,009 (-29%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,100 $4,575 −$525 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $2,600 $4,300 +$1,700 (+65%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,888 $4,277 −$611 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4,900 $4,180 −$720 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5,100 $3,641 −$1,459 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,050 $2,525 −$2,525 (-50%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 16¢ $4,410 $2,325 −$2,085 (-47%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $1,500 $2,150 +$650 (+43%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,869 $1,894 −$2,976 (-61%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $1,037 $1,080 +$43 (+4%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,000 $1,000 −$3,000 (-75%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $650 $911 +$261 (+40%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $589 $532 −$57 (-10%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $504 $525 +$21 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,050 $525 −$525 (-50%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $517 $512 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $509 $508 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $510 $502 −$8 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $504 $492 −$12 (-2%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $464 $450 −$14 (-3%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $471 $444 −$27 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$207 +203%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,045 −$4,900 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 7m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 8m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 8m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 15m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $200 28m
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $205 30m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 32m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 32m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $516 33m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 36m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 36m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 37m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 37m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $521 40m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 42m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 44m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $103 45m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 46m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $103 46m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $310 51m
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 54m
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $99 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $348 1h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $427 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No $213 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,028.92 · official $64,032.91 (match) · 316 history records