Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37c1…62ba
other · 17 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$9 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 9 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$9
crypto 23% −$2
politics 16% +$3
sports 4% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 25% -32.7%
≤90d 8 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 25% -32.7%
all 8 -43.4% -48.8% 50% 25% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 25% -32.7%
10% -53.7% 0% -39.2%
15% -58.2% 0% -45.1%
20% -62.3% 0% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.31 · official $84.31 (match) · 37 history records