Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37ba…e3f3 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% +$7
other 27% −$4
politics 23% −$2
sports 18% +$11
culture 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 6% -8.7%
all 56 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -8.9%
10% -21.4% 4% -17.6%
15% -29.0% 4% -25.6%
20% -36.0% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage477d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $140 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $46 +$4 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $59 $0 -1%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $125 +$3 +2%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $154 −$2 -1%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 17 $8 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 16 $154 $0 +0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? May 07 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 07 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 06 $7 $0 +7%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 05 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 03 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31? Mar 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 30 $1 $0 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 26m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 26m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $39 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $21 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records