Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37b6…81e1 crypto 987 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%573W / 413L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$88
sports 0% +$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -9.5% -18.1% 63% 54% -16.1%
≤30d 986 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 51% -14.7%
≤90d 986 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 51% -14.7%
all 986 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 51% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 51% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 46% -22.8%
15% -31.7% 36% -30.3%
20% -38.4% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses573 / 413
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)986 / 987
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1876 history records