Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37b0…aee6 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 26% −$1
politics 13% +$1
finance 6% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
all 43 +1.0% -8.6% 23% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage268d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $2 $0 -10%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Oct 02 $25 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $27 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $28 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $28 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $28 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $28 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $20 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $7 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $1 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $22 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $28 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $30 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $30 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $27 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.70 · official $29.70 (match) · 159 history records