trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 10 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 50% | 50% | +1.9% |
| all | 10 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 50% | 50% | +1.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.8% | 50% | +1.9% |
| 10% | -11.2% | 30% | -7.8% |
| 15% | -19.8% | 20% | -16.7% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 20% | -24.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Over | 43¢ | 66¢ | $105 | $162 | +$57 (+55%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $95 | −$5 (-5%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 56¢ | 44¢ | $100 | $79 | −$21 (-21%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $70 | $44 | −$26 (-37%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? | May 26 | $32 | +$64 | +201% |
| Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $20 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $20 | +$5 | +26% |
| Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | May 25 | $21 | +$23 | +109% |
| Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? | May 20 | $21 | −$15 | -71% |
| Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? | May 17 | $11 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 14 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |