Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37ae…1002
other · 7 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$739 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$441 · open −$298
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,430
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$298
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,931
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 3 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$441
7 days−$441
14 days−$441
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10,028 $9,997 −$31 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,699 $1,417 −$283 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,016 +$16 (+2%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $242 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $248 −$242 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$540
sports 2% −$200
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $721 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8,201 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,078 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $103 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $248 16h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 6¢ $103 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-72.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.9% -72.8% 25% 25% -98.8%
≤30d 4 -69.9% -72.8% 25% 25% -98.8%
≤90d 4 -69.9% -72.8% 25% 25% -98.8%
all 4 -69.9% -72.8% 25% 25% -98.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.8% 25% -98.8%
10% -75.4% 0% -98.9%
15% -77.7% 0% -99.0%
20% -79.9% 0% -99.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,429.89 · official $12,433.89 (match) · 11 history records