Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x37ac…417b crypto 1491 markets active 2d ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%742W / 535L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$13
14 days+$404
30 days+$1,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.3% +3.4% 61% 59% -3.4%
≤30d 1277 +10.3% -0.2% 58% 58% +4.9%
≤90d 1277 +10.3% -0.2% 58% 58% +4.9%
all 1277 +10.3% -0.2% 58% 58% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 58% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 58% -5.1%
15% -18.5% 58% -14.3%
20% -26.5% 56% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses742 / 535
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1277 / 1491
History coverage22d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1277 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2372 history records