Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37aa…7fa0
crypto · 430 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses334 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)428 / 430
History coverage138d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 428 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Atlanta Dream 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Knicks 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$5 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $19 +$15 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $9 +$1 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$5
politics 17% −$1
other 14% −$4
sports 13% −$9
world 6% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 7h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $5 45h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $9 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 55¢ $6 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $8 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $8 4d
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 77¢ $10 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 6d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $6 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $9 7d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 7d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 7d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 7d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $5 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $7 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $5 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $8 9d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 75¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 88¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 42% -29.5%
≤30d 59 -10.4% -19.0% 80% 15% -13.9%
≤90d 242 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 4% -10.4%
all 428 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $13.91 (match) · 1949 history records