Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a6…6684 crypto 686 markets active 6d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%360W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$266
14 days−$280
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 31% -20.6%
≤30d 391 -14.9% -23.0% 46% 36% -15.8%
≤90d 686 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 46% -10.3%
all 686 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 46% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 46% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -18.9%
15% -32.6% 27% -26.7%
20% -39.2% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses360 / 326
Open positions0
Markets (closed)686 / 686
History coverage48d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 686 Trades
no open positions (251 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$3 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $44 −$39 -89%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$5 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$19 -57%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$17 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$3 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $35 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1865 history records