Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a5…e5f0 crypto 58 markets active 106d ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,343 (-38%) realized −$8,343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 44L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$5,791
tech 13% −$2,799
politics 8% −$1,750
economics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 58 -40.4% -46.0% 24% 24% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 24% -55.2%
10% -51.2% 24% -59.5%
15% -55.9% 22% -63.4%
20% -60.2% 22% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$359 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage126d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 01 $1,120 −$1,105 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 01 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 01 $700 −$694 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 01 $510 −$506 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 01 $400 +$656 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 01 $800 −$790 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 01 $610 −$606 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 01 $200 +$212 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 01 $200 +$279 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 01 $310 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $310 −$308 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $300 −$100 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 28 $300 +$366 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 28 $1,012 +$1,000 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $1,100 −$1,091 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 28 $1,100 −$99 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 28 $600 +$529 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 28 $211 −$208 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 28 $310 −$308 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 28 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 28 $500 +$521 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $723 −$723 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 28 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 28 $354 −$354 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 28 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 28 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 28 $950 −$950 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Feb 28 $2,799 −$2,799 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1,120 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $300 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $100 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $100 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $500 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $100 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $400 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $0 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $81 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $36 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $72 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $67 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $19 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $20 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $10 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $86 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records