Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37a5…a8ae
sports · 160 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$38 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 64
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)140 / 160
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 20 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$19
14 days+$18
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Aliona Falei 66¢ 66¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Japan leading at halftime? No 79¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 68¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Curaçao 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Lan Mi 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -63%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -89%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +66%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $6 +$6 +96%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $1 +$2 +204%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +132%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 +$1 +144%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$11 +117%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +66%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +104%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +47%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +37%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +122%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +39%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$56
other 22% −$32
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $4 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Aliona Falei 66¢ $8 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Aliona Falei 66¢ $1 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi BUY Lan Mi 75¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 7¢ $1 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 4h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 21¢ $1 4h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $3 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $7 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +12.8% +2.1% 65% 53% -1.1%
≤30d 140 +4.1% -5.9% 54% 47% -5.4%
≤90d 140 +4.1% -5.9% 54% 47% -5.4%
all 140 +4.1% -5.9% 54% 47% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 47% -5.4%
10% -14.9% 42% -14.5%
15% -23.1% 39% -22.7%
20% -30.6% 31% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.46 · official $54.06 (match) · 430 history records