Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37a4…72a9 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,592 (+22%) realized +$6,572 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%33W / 20L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,256
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.3% -20.7% 55% 55% -8.4%
≤30d 11 -12.3% -20.7% 55% 55% -8.4%
≤90d 17 -7.9% -16.7% 59% 59% +6.5%
all 53 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 62% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 62% +11.4%
10% -15.0% 60% +0.7%
15% -23.2% 53% -9.0%
20% -30.7% 42% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$829) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$319 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$2,091
Realized+$6,572
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses33 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage237d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India India 32¢ 32¢ $2,071 $2,091 +$20 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 27 $621 −$621 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $1,678 −$1,678 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $2,622 +$1,178 +45%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $1,120 +$639 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $541 +$381 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $203 +$197 +97%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $86 +$27 +31%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $163 +$105 +65%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik May 08 $1,512 +$1,023 +68%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 07 $1,432 +$568 +40%
Santos: Guido Justo vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez May 07 $95 −$95 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $198 +$54 +27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic May 07 $606 +$398 +66%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Raphael Collignon Mar 23 $1,530 +$687 +45%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $694 −$145 -21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $370 +$246 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 22 $829 +$600 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 21 $772 −$772 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $290 +$539 +186%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 19 $859 −$859 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $1,220 +$780 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $788 +$462 +59%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 15 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playof Feb 14 $94 +$130 +138%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $629 +$386 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Feb 14 $301 +$416 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 14 $50 +$21 +43%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $1,560 +$840 +54%
Jets vs. Utah Dec 22 $468 +$432 +92%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Dec 22 $1,901 +$979 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Dec 21 $1,027 +$774 +75%
Lakers vs. Clippers Dec 21 $159 −$159 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Dec 21 $935 +$705 +75%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO3) Dec 20 $173 +$101 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 06 $146 −$146 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 06 $70 +$30 +43%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $28 +$15 +54%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $66 +$19 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 04 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 04 $37 +$22 +61%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs 3DMAX (BO1) Dec 04 $177 −$177 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets Nov 08 $213 +$67 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $380 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $127 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $106 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 33¢ $137 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $417 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $15 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $9 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $181 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $0 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $12 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 32¢ $449 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $122 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 31¢ $118 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,091.24 · official $2,091.24 (match) · 292 history records