Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a4…1e65 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (508 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-2%) realized −$164 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%86W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day508.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$885
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (508 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 67% -16.1%
≤30d 126 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 67% -16.1%
≤90d 126 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 67% -16.1%
all 126 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 67% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover508.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 67% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 63% -24.1%
15% -31.2% 36% -31.4%
20% -37.9% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$89 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses86 / 40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)126 / 130
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day508.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 68¢ 74¢ $97 $107 +$9 (+10%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 60¢ 64¢ $97 $104 +$7 (+7%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $97 +$44 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$26 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$38 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$40 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$52 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$53 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$26 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$26 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$93 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$36 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$26 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$34 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$46 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$93 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$39 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$32 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$85 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $94 +$18 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $94 −$92 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$94 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$20 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$28 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$31 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $95 −$94 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$22 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$33 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$45 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$39 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$29 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$48 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$97 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$22 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$19 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$97 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$32 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $0 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $28 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $16 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.17 · official $3,430.42 · 593 history records