Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x37a1…551d crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$484 (+1%) realized +$477 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%141W / 20L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$116
14 days+$137
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$488
other 1% −$55
world 0% +$45
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 92% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 68 -6.7% -15.6% 85% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 125 -6.8% -15.7% 86% 4% -8.8%
all 161 -3.0% -12.2% 88% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -8.8%
10% -20.6% 2% -17.6%
15% -28.3% 1% -25.5%
20% -35.3% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$1,805
Realized+$477
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses141 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)161 / 170
History coverage221d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $985 $994 +$9 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 90¢ 90¢ $745 $741 −$4 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $972 +$28 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $990 +$30 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $992 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $985 +$15 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $968 +$32 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,384 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $991 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $728 +$72 +10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,800 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $995 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $784 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $485 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $491 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $394 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $796 +$12 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $184 −$153 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $816 +$34 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $525 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $766 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $500 +$12 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $499 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $398 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $191 +$9 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -91%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $592 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 −$1 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $181 +$20 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $445 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $500 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $247 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $503 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $1,102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $706 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $404 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $27 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $958 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 20 BUY 42¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $996 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $972 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $57 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $332 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $601 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $954 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $38 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $985 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $798 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $170 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $499 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $873 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,805.30 · official $1,807.30 (match) · 506 history records