Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a1…6691 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized +$19 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$5,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1,665
other 49% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-60.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.5% -60.6% 29% 29% +30.4%
≤30d 7 -56.5% -60.6% 29% 29% +30.4%
≤90d 7 -56.5% -60.6% 29% 29% +30.4%
all 7 -56.5% -60.6% 29% 29% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.6% 29% +30.4%
10% ← realistic here -64.4% 29% +17.9%
15% -67.8% 29% +6.5%
20% -71.0% 14% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$887 vs −$47 · ×19.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,318
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions14
Markets (closed)7 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? No 88¢ 90¢ $3,720 $3,783 +$63 (+2%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 78¢ 100¢ $946 $1,212 +$266 (+28%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 51¢ $107 $105 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 66¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? No 81¢ 80¢ $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 71¢ 72¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) DR Congo 9¢ 100¢ $2 $17 +$15 (+1011%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-18%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $358 $2 −$357 (-100%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3,227 +$1,761 +55%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $99 −$92 -93%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $28 +$13 +46%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 England? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $95 −$92 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1,317 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1,910 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 88¢ $1,126 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 88¢ $2,607 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $64 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $0 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $8 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $30 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $95 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $65 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $96 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 9¢ $2 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $952 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 1h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 9h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 9h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY No 81¢ $33 10h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 England? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 10h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $61 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,318.21 · official $5,318.23 (match) · 44 history records