Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a1…37c5 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$2
other 30% −$8
sports 13% −$3
politics 11% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 77 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 3% -9.4%
all 91 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 67
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage531d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $14 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $76 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $141 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $183 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $81 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $53 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $69 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -5%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $40 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $13 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records