Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37a1…b0c8 politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,046 (-9%) realized −$4,205 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate83%64W / 13L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$95
14 days−$3,864
30 days−$3,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$149
other 31% −$3,907
finance 8% −$79
crypto 5% −$63
world 4% −$137
tech 4% +$108
economics 3% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤30d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 55% -38.6%
≤90d 77 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 34% -19.8%
all 77 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 34% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 34% -19.8%
10% -20.8% 9% -27.5%
15% -28.4% 4% -34.5%
20% -35.4% 3% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$508 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$7,408
Realized−$4,205
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses64 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage77d
Avg bet$486
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $3,720 $3,835 +$115 (+3%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $781 $797 +$16 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $682 $754 +$72 (+11%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $491 $504 +$13 (+3%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 91¢ 94¢ $455 $470 +$15 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $282 $287 +$5 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $264 $275 +$11 (+4%)
Will Warren Buffett be 3rd richest person on December 31? No 94¢ 73¢ $300 $232 −$68 (-23%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $118 $125 +$7 (+6%)
Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on December 31? No 93¢ 78¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 82¢ 67¢ $56 $46 −$10 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $380 −$176 -46%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4,039 −$3,681 -91%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $647 −$606 -94%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 08 $150 +$20 +13%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" this week? Jun 08 $523 +$25 +5%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 08 $190 +$28 +15%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Trump say "President Biden" this week? Jun 08 $23 +$1 +6%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,902 +$436 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $241 +$33 +14%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 02 $35 +$18 +50%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $355 +$73 +21%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 01 $159 +$19 +12%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 01 $303 +$103 +34%
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in May? Jun 01 $602 +$64 +11%
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer" or "Buy a Dell Computer" in May? Jun 01 $124 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$26 +9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $97 +$20 +21%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 25 $70 −$63 -90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 13 $1,065 +$43 +4%
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? May 11 $504 +$118 +23%
Will Trump say "My father" this week? May 11 $77 +$43 +56%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 06 $300 −$43 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $300 −$9 -3%
Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 04 $425 +$15 +4%
Will Trump say "Failing New York Times" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 04 $1,101 +$23 +2%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3 May 04 $144 +$13 +9%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan? May 04 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 3+ times in Michigan? May 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bernie Sanders's remarks not air? May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Trump say "Alien Dot Gov" or "Aliens Dot Gov" in April? May 02 $200 +$28 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $1,000 +$40 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 02 $193 +$7 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 02 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in April? May 02 $415 +$62 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 02 $1,229 −$127 -10%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? May 02 $1,168 +$59 +5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $3,144 +$39 +1%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in April? Apr 19 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Trump say "Gay" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 16 $700 +$52 +7%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April? Apr 15 $699 −$697 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 15 $83 +$16 +20%
Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12) Apr 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) Apr 13 $1,596 +$231 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 12 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $64 6d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $3 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $3 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $2 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $2 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $4 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $5 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $9 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $13 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $56 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $19 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $83 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $18 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $160 8d
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $386 9d
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $108 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $107 9d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $21 10d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $74 10d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 10d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $102 10d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $346 10d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $370 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 11d
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? BUY No 88¢ $133 11d
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? BUY No 87¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,407.97 · official $7,407.13 (match) · 310 history records