Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37a0…8423
other · 157 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$500 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$508 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$249
Realized+$508
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses55 / 94
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions7
Markets (closed)149 / 157
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 7 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$583
7 days+$583
14 days+$619
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $137 $126 −$11 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5) TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $387 $0 −$387 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 SV Werder Bremen? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$136 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $71 +$66 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $104 +$146 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $545 +$226 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $365 +$307 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$260 +254%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $498 −$409 -82%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $7 −$7 -96%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $121 +$258 +214%
Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5) May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $129 −$126 -98%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw? May 17 $159 −$155 -98%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $296 +$642 +217%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5 May 09 $152 +$116 +76%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $93 −$63 -68%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to Score May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 +$141 +69%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $72 −$72 -100%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? May 09 $46 +$24 +52%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $169 +$236 +140%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $111 +$58 +52%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Draw at halftime? May 09 $94 −$92 -98%
Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 SV Werder Bremen? May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen? May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Score May 09 $150 +$75 +50%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $143 −$142 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $497 −$490 -99%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $192 −$189 -98%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $110 −$107 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 25 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 25 $17 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 25 $8 +$11 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 25 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $17 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$658
sports 35% +$325
crypto 8% +$547
world 7% +$220
politics 3% +$79
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $137 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $41 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 11h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $250 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $771 12h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $104 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $545 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 11d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +62.0% +46.6% 80% 80% +52.0%
≤30d 21 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% +13.9%
≤90d 83 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 39% -16.2%
all 149 -1.8% -11.1% 37% 37% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 37% -7.1%
10% -19.6% 36% -16.0%
15% -27.4% 34% -24.1%
20% -34.5% 30% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.97 · official $248.98 (match) · 471 history records