Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x379f…b680 crypto 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-15%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%148W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$117
14 days−$170
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 48% -20.9%
≤30d 318 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 47% -24.0%
≤90d 318 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 47% -24.0%
all 318 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 47% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 47% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 47% -31.3%
15% -34.6% 47% -37.9%
20% -41.0% 47% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses148 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (170 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 498 history records