Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

37 0x3799…2728 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$12,448 (-14%) realized +$18,537 · open −$30,985

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5,560per market

Trades / day6.4pace

Fees−$40est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$17,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-2.0%	-11.3%	56%	33%	-44.3%
≤30d	9	-2.0%	-11.3%	56%	33%	-44.3%
≤90d	9	-2.0%	-11.3%	56%	33%	-44.3%
all	9	-2.0%	-11.3%	56%	33%	-44.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.4 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-11.3%	33%	-44.3%
10% ← realistic here	-19.8%	22%	-49.6%
15%	-27.5%	22%	-54.5%
20%	-34.6%	11%	-58.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$601 vs −$3,901 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.19 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$17,450

Realized+$18,537

Unrealized−$30,985

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$40

Open positions7

Markets (closed)9 / 16

History coverage4d

Avg bet$5,560

Trades / day6.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	20¢	$38,094	$11,216	−$26,877 (-71%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	No	86¢	50¢	$9,861	$5,778	−$4,082 (-41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$96	$129	+$32 (+34%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$96	$89	−$7 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$96	$83	−$13 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$96	$80	−$16 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$96	$75	−$22 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$17,293	−$12,964	-75%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10,000	−$439	-4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4,604	−$2,128	-46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2,020	+$2,402	+119%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 14	$1,901	+$119	+6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$1,583	+$318	+20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$1,000	−$72	-7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$1,000	+$85	+8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$200	+$80	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$9,891	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20,000	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$8,970	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	88¢	$4,000	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	85¢	$6,000	12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	49¢	$4,765	18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	49¢	$8,528	18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	79¢	$9,561	18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	50¢	$3,731	18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	80¢	$10,000	19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$4,000	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$2,182	24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	52¢	$2,182	24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	55¢	$2,422	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$4,422	38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	44¢	$2,020	40h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	93¢	$1,901	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	82¢	$1,583	2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	55¢	$928	2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$1,000	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	91¢	$1,000	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$100	3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$100	3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$100	3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$100	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$100	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$200	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,450.08 · official $17,450.68 (match) · 34 history records