Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3795…66c6 crypto 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+4%) realized +$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%73W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$113
14 days+$92
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$150
world 2% +$46
sports 1% −$31
politics 1% −$20
tech 0% −$28
other 0% −$25
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 63 -39.1% -44.9% 32% 22% -15.4%
≤90d 224 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 29% -8.5%
all 224 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 29% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 29% -8.5%
10% -30.8% 27% -17.3%
15% -37.4% 25% -25.3%
20% -43.6% 21% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$22 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses73 / 151
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage62d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $153 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$45 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $220 −$62 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $303 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $208 −$83 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $261 +$419 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$76 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $210 −$167 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $155 +$132 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $252 +$82 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $223 −$223 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $53 −$35 -67%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 31 $31 −$30 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $144 −$51 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $57 +$35 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $61 −$55 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $42 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $47 +$106 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $62 −$50 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $22 −$9 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $67 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.89 (match) · 657 history records