Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x3794…21c1 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-10%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% $0
world 26% +$1
sports 12% −$98
crypto 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 -28.2% -35.1% 67% 11% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 11% -19.3%
10% -41.3% 11% -27.0%
15% -47.0% 11% -34.1%
20% -52.2% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$35 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage547d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $10 +$4 +45%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Apr 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Feb 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 25 $247 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 10? Jan 17 $247 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 03 $245 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 69¢ $10 151d
Devils vs. Hurricanes BUY Devils 34¢ $67 432d
Solana above $240 on February 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 504d
Rockets vs. Nets BUY Rockets 78¢ $36 507d
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $247 526d
Ripple above $2.40 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $247 532d
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? BUY Yes 99¢ $245 546d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.19 · official $28.19 (match) · 20 history records