Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3794…715c crypto 1548 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$610 (-8%) realized −$610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%1420W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$28
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$52
other 6% −$7
weather 5% −$10
sports 2% $0
politics 1% −$7
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 911 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 1% -9.7%
≤30d 1336 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 1% -10.1%
≤90d 1546 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 3% -10.4%
all 1546 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 3% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1420 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1546 / 1548
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1546 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 44m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records