Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3793…10af sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$293 · open −$277
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$212
14 days−$212
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$425
other 6% −$76
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -43.2%
≤30d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -43.2%
≤90d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -43.2%
all 51 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 45% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 45% -38.7%
10% -23.4% 39% -44.5%
15% -30.8% 33% -49.9%
20% -37.5% 27% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,195
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$277
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage232d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $982 $972 −$9 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 18¢ $488 $220 −$268 (-55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $243 −$240 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $134 −$35 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +43%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$7 -47%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $95 +$117 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Feb 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? Feb 20 $1 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 20 $1 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 06 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $91 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $5 $0 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 01 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $995 28m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $497 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $148 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $95 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 62¢ $5 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $5 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 82¢ $1 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $96 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $134 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $8 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 35h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.67 · official $1,194.67 (match) · 97 history records