Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3791…8576 crypto 1582 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate83%1327W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$63
14 days−$65
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -32.3% -38.7% 61% 23% -56.7%
≤30d 104 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 42% -25.9%
≤90d 712 -2.7% -11.9% 83% 20% -8.3%
all 1593 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 32% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 32% -8.4%
10% -18.7% 4% -17.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1327 / 266
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1593 / 1582
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 95¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$8 -4897%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$8 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$7 -2252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3445%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 14m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 95¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $2.63 (match) · 3500 history records